Crazy Volatility
By mucko - Posted on March 14th, 2008
Once again, market proves to be as crazy as a fox when it comes to volatiliy. Usually as the volatility picks up, it rarely ends with a big rally. Normally at some point you get the capitulation phase and big down, then its done. I think we are close to that capitulation point, should happen in the next few weeks.
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Well I was wrong on the next few weeks, but we are in the midst of the capitulation selling. Although this time seems a bit different, as the stocks just are not trading right. It seems all the funds now use the same trading algo's to drive stocks, should be interesting as there is no way all of them can successfully do that and make money. Basically there are 3 modes: Fade Everything, Chase Relentless at Any Price, and Participate. They are spread out differently for each name, but in general most of the idiots are doing the same thing. You will notice recently that both breakouts AND breakdowns get faded. This has persisted for months now and is very odd. Usually there is a bias definately based on trend. Obviously right now (last 4 days) because they are in tank mode, breakdowns are not faded. But prior to that, most names if you chase in any way or form a breakout move you probably had an 80% chance to lose. You get a 10c profit, followed by a 1.50-2pt move the other way which anyone with a modicum of money management will for sure get stopped out. I think the Dow will break down further to probably 10600-800 then try a bounce - it probably will bounce next week for a few days, then continue lower. Based on how poorly stuff trades vs futures I am actually shocked that the Naz is not 1000 points lower. It is commonplace now to get a 5-6pt pop in the ES, you are net long and you lose. The same used to happen on the short side, but obviously that is not the case now. Basically stocks dont move - its not that they are being held back, you can watch time and sales - there is no lifting of the offer much. Bascally once again, this is all the funds on the same gameplan with the algo programs. They will not lift the offer unless a big buy program forces them to.- the same happens on the sell side too, it just shifts back and forth. This has been happening for months, its not just because the market has been selling recently- you expect stocks to be heavy when that happens. Anyone seriously into day trading or short term trading and needs ideas should use my trading robot. Its only going to be free for a few more months, so take advantage - there is nothing to download and even a 5 year old could understand how it works. It is not the holy grail but it really does find a lot of big winners and never gets caught on the wrong side of the market overall. Check out http://www.mytradingrobot.com The robot also has its own blog which shows ALL the trades that were sent out live - so if you think its full of crap, go there and see for yourself. Recently its at about 70% winning trades on several thousand trades completed. Obviously this varies over time and has been as low as 65% and as high as 80% winners. The blog is http://www.my-trading-robot.com