spx

We got a VERY big SELL signal yesterday for the S&P (SPX) and I am taking some major short positons which we expect to have on for a few weeks - perhaps for the better part of the summer.

I mentioned last year (about 8 months ago) how 2009 was following the same pattern as the market in 2003 - similarly we are following 2004 so far in 2010

in a nutshell in 2004 we set a high in mid jan then had a big 7% sell off into mid/late Feb - we did the same this year.  In 2004 we then regained all those losses and got a slighlty higher high in March/April (it was less then 1% above the Jan highs).  Then we sold off fairly hard and while we had some bounces - we eventually set a low in July / August 2004 and it was about 12% +/- off the highs.  Which would put us in the 1020 - 1040 area IF we follow a similar pattern.

spx1809.JPG

usdjpy1809.JPG

Good morning,

Yesterday, the sellers took controll and we got a ''doji'' formation on SPX on daily chart. If we get a follow up on the downside with some volume, we will get a confirmed sell signal where we can expect decline upcoming days.

Furthermore, I got a chart from my broker regarding USDJPY. We recently completed a 3-drive formation since early summer 2009. This support the case for a pop on USDJPY next couple of days. Stronger USD favors weaker performance on equity and commodity.

In this matter, we are now going short on SPX (SDS) and also having some short exposure on commodities. Looking for a retest and gapfill on SPX to 1015 area.

Best regards,
Viewll

spx1409.JPG

Good morning,

We thought the market would get a pullback from last friday. However, we did get a weak opening yesterday, but the market was strong troughout the tradingday and closed right below 1050 on SPX. In this matter, the divergens on momentum and price is bigger at this level. In my eyes, that is a reason to be carefull if long and wait for weakness to go short in this market.

I will anyways respect price and if SPX close above 1050 today, I will bite the dust and cover my shorts and go long. Next target on the upside is still 1120 area on SPX, which is 50% retracement on daily chart. On the downside, I am still hoping for a gapclose and 61,8% retracement on hourly timeframe @ 1015 on SPX.

Best regards,
Viewll

Evening guys!

I believe we reached the top for now on this current leg/pop last couple of days. Although, my target was 50% retracement on daily chart for SPX @ 1120+. However, I think the market is ready for a shortterm pullback. On that matter, we locked our profits on SSO (see earlier blog entry) yesterday and loaded up with SDS.

Our target is 1015 on SPX.

Evening people,

Today we went long SSO for a swingtrade. Wallstarb nailed this week movement with a top last friday and a bottom yesterday. Furthermore, I got a technical buy on SPX today on hourly timeframe. Please see enclosed chart of SPX.

Here you can see that MACD bottomed out and now we need price confirmation that SPX moves above 1003-1004. My target was before 50% retracement on SPX (daily chart) and a target of 1123 EOY. However, I will move my stop tighter when we reach 1035+ area and see how high the market manage to go before a new pullback. Stop loss on the downside is a close below 992.

I hope this chart is usefull and thanx once again for greatfull information on the chat!

Still have a nice day!

Best regards,
Viewll

About 3 weeks ago I happened to be doing some research and noticed a strikign similarity between the crash and rebound in 2003 to whats happeend in 2009 (so far).

2 weeks ago we expected the HIGH of this leg to be set on Thursday/Friday Aug 27/28 and the Botton to be set 3 or 4 trading days after on Weds/Thurs Sept 2/3 --> I expect a slow grind higher and the TOP of this leg to be set in about 2 weeks on Sept 17th - the day before OPTION EXPIRATION. We would expect a move maybe 1% - 2% or so higher then previous highs - possible a little higher as the angle of this rally is steeeper so pullback and breakout should be equally steep.